Nightmare Scenarios

As I complete my morning drive around Bloghdad, I'm noticing that a few people are beginning to extrapolate on what could go wrong, and to what extent it could go wrong, in the Middle East. Articles like this one, this one, and this one each paint a slightly different, though equally bleak, vision of what could happen to the US and the world if the current crisis spins out of control.

The frightening thought is that none of these scenarios is particularly implausible. And while in the old days we could at least say that the diplomats will work it out and quietly save the world from itself, Gillard points out that diplomacy is pretty worthless when the diplomats are basing their actions on the bonk-job theory that Arab nations (who conventional wisdom says want to destroy Israel) will somehow put their own interest aside and act to do something nice for Israel.

I liken this novel approach to foreign policy to living on the side of a mountain where rockslides are common, and basing the protection of your house on the hope on the suspension of the laws of gravity.

That car ain't gonna get out of the driveway, Condi. Better try thinking of something else. [tag:Middle East Diplomacy] [tag:Israel and Lebanon] [tag:Middle East]