Doomed. DOOMED.

Well, here we are, about 3/4 of the way through August. Pre-VP, pre-convention, in the last of the Dog Days. And Zogby/Reuters drops a poll showing that John McCain has opened up a 5-point lead on Barack Obama.

And all hell breaks loose (the comments at TPM Election Central reacting to the Zogby poll illustrate it nicely). The whole magillah of over-reaction is on display - Obama as Dukakis (or Gore or Kerry, or whoever the preferred 'Democrat who didn't fight back' may be). Obama's team is clueless. My God, we should have picked Hillary. Campaign, imploding. Sky, falling. Cancel the fucking election. All is lost.

Over one goddamned poll. A Zogby poll, at that.

But a look at a group of other polls, most of them taken after the Zogby poll, sort of evens things out a bit. To wit:

Rasmussen 8/16-18/08	McCain 45	Obama 47
Times/Bloomberg 8/15-18/08	McCain 43	Obama 45
Gallup 8/15-17/08	McCain 43	Obama 46
Quinnipiac 8/12-17/08	McCain 42	Obama 47
Zogby/Reuters 8/14-16/08	McCain 46	Obama 41

Most within the MOE. Probably where things should be at this point in time.

A favorite pastime of Democratic hand-wringers is looking at, say, John Kerry's polling for a similar time-frame in 2004, noting that Kerry lost, and proclaiming utter doom. The thesis goes like this: Kerry was up X number of points in August, and because of the campaign he ran, he ended up losing. And since we all know that every single election - regardless of 'facts on the ground' (sorry), economic factors, mood of the country, the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates and any other variables - turn out exactly the same, every time (snark), Obama is destined to lose.

Because of one Zogby poll.

And pointing to the Zogby poll - which, I'll remind you, has McCain up by 5, somehow reinforces the narrative that Obama = Kerry/Gore/Dukakis/whoever, and Obama is destined to lose.

But hold up - wouldn't that poll, which shows McCain up by 5 in August, provided that every election plays out exactly the same, guarantee that McCain will lose in November? There is a disconnect here, and no one has explained it satisfactorily as far as I've seen.

Now, I realize that everybody is on edge waiting for the VP to be announced and there isn't much to focus on besides polls and the Corporate Media is driving the narrative that they want (keyword: horserace) and every single tiny bit of information that shows up on the internet is the Final Fucking Word and Clinton supporters are still praying for (and by some accounts, angling for) a Convention Miracle and everything - but can we please all take a deep breath, breathe into a paper bag, slap ourselves a couple of times?

Let the convention happen, and give it two weeks. If Obama is still faltering (indeed, if he ever was), then maybe y'all can panic. Until then, please. No drama. I know it's tempting. Resist it.

Nothing hurts Democratic chances in November worse than demoralized Democrats. Think about it.

Addendum: Probama08 makes a similar point at DKos.