Lunging for the Fundie Vote: Is it enough to win?

I was wondering this last night - McCain's campaign has apparently made the decision to throw all-in with Dobson and Perkins and their followers, consequences be damned. They nominated a woman for VP who won't tolerate sex education in schools, preaches abstinence-only (how's that working out for you, there, Moose Dresser?), and would undoubtedly be fine with overturning Roe v. Wade.

Furthermore, McCain showed his belly to Dobson and Perkins and let them make the VP pick (what a Maverick!)

So at bottom, the question is this - is pandering to the no-choice, Rapture-Ready Loon Contingent enough to win a presidential election? Josh Marshall doesn't think so, and I'm inclined to agree.

The race to date has been characterized by two key facts.

First, the Democratic base is bigger than the Republican base. The number of self-identifying Democrats is substantially larger that the number of Republican-identifiers.

Second, contrary to what we might have imagined earlier in the year, Republicans have already been substantially more united behind McCain than Democrats have been behind Obama. I would not have predicted that. But the polls have been extremely consistent on this point.

In other words, the GOP 'base' was already substantially united behind McCain, subjective measures of intensity notwithstanding. The people who will win the election for McCain are disaffected Democrats and independents. In the context of 2008, a juicing-the-base strategy is a recipe for a respectable defeat, not victory.

That's what I thought. Kissing ass for Fundie Cred ain't the way to win an alection. Not this time.