Not a Promising Omen

I've avoided commenting on the recent events in Gaza, as the more I read, the less I understand. But I do know how to look for Signs, and a big one is when Bill Kristol is in your corner, watch out. From today's column:

The Israeli assault on Hamas in Gaza is going to be a replay, we’re told, of the attempt to subdue Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in the summer of 2006. And the outcome, it’s asserted, will be the same: lots of death and destruction, no strategic victory for Israel and a setback for all who seek peace and progress in the Middle East.

Obviously, war is an unpredictable business, so I say this with some trepidation: I think the conventional wisdom will be proved wrong. Israel could well succeed in Gaza.

War is an unpredictable business, but tallying up Kristol's track record is not. His prediction-accuracy quotient is Zero, which suggests things are only going to get uglier.