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07/10/2003 Archived Entry: "Spinning into the Nam model quicker than I expected."
Spinning into the Nam model quicker than I expected.
I was talking to a friend the other day, and he was wondering when people would start to turn against the Iraq occupation. I told him when people started getting the idea that this won't be quick or easy - when it's announced that troops are pretty much stuck there, and the monetary cost is higher than expected, when soldiers start killing themselves out of desperation or 'fragging' their superiors or other soldiers, and when returnees start behaving like killing machines in the safety of home.
We are fast approaching the tipping point - much more quickly than I would have guessed. And when the public at large begins to really get that they were lied to and this whole mess could have been avoided, the backlash against The Thug Cabal will be extremely - in the words of Rumsfeld - untidy.
Replies: somebody speaks up.
I think the key variable is the Bodybag Count. I'm sure some quant in the DoD has already worked out an equation on the order of:
# of bodybags (all causes)
divided by
# of days =
bodybags/day
My own guesstimate is that most Americans can tolerate a bodybag/day count of 1.0. Once that number is exceeded, you'll see greater opposition to the war here at home.
I don't believe the financial cost of the war is important at this time because (1) the numbers can always be fudged and (2) most Americans are too worried about their own paychecks.
Of course, if we actually had an independent media... Nah, what was I thinking?
Posted by Metropolitan99 @ 07/10/2003 12:21 PM NY
